Wednesday, June 2nd 2021, 1:58 pm - The Weather Network's official 2021 Summer Forecast reveals what Canada can expect for the heart of the summer season.
Summer is the most anticipated season of the year for many Canadians, likely more so this year than ever. With summer now upon us, will the weather be ideal for getting outside to enjoy your favourite summer activities? To help answer this question, let’s take a look at The Weather Network’s summer forecast for the months of June, July and August.
Our summer forecast features great weather for enjoying the beach and backyard barbecues, as most of Canada will see near-normal or above-normal temperatures, and more than the typical number of sunny days.
However, there is a downside for areas where we expect a hot and dry summer. Drought conditions are a major concern for agricultural regions across much of Western Canada, along with a heightened risk for wildfires and poor air quality. On the other side of the country, a very warm and occasionally stormy summer is expected along with a very active hurricane season and an increased risk for tropical impacts to Atlantic Canada.
Here is a closer look at the temperature pattern that we expect to dominate across Canada this summer.
The hottest weather this summer (relative to normal) is expected across the southern Prairies. The area of greatest uncertainty is across Ontario. It would not come as a surprise if the hot weather to the west shifted far enough to the east to bring a hot summer all the way to Ontario as well. However, we cannot ignore the numerous models and our own research which highlights the potential for periods of cooler weather during July and August that could more than offset the periods of hot weather. This is something that we will be looking at very closely before we update our summer forecast on June 20th.
Here is a look at our national precipitation forecast for the summer season.
While late May finally brought some relief from the exceptionally dry conditions across the southern Prairies, we are concerned that this region will return to a very dry pattern as we head into the heart of summer with the potential for major impacts on agriculture. Dry conditions across southern and central B.C. and also across parts of northern Ontario would also bring a heightened risk for wildfires.
Visit our Complete Guide to Summer 2021 for tips to plan for the season ahead and much more!
Further to the north, we expect a stormy pattern at times across parts of the central and northern Prairie provinces and then stretching east to central Quebec. A wetter pattern is also expected near the east coast of the United States and that should extend northeast across the Maritime provinces.
Southern Ontario and southern Quebec could tip either way as they are sandwiched between the anticipated dry pattern to the west and a wetter and stormier pattern to the south and east. However, we think that the most likely scenario for this region is that we see extended periods of dry weather, which will get broken up by strong storms at times and a few moisture-laden systems.
Below is a more detailed look at the conditions that we expect across Canada this summer:
A hot and dry summer is expected across the southern and central interior of the province and a very warm and dry summer is expected for the southern and central coast, including Vancouver and Victoria. Northern parts of B.C. will also see above-normal temperatures, but near normal rainfall is expected.
An abundance of warm or hot sunny days will be ideal for those who are looking forward to spending time on or by the water. However, the combination of above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall will bring a heightened risk for wildfires and poor air quality, especially during July, August, and September.
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A hot and dry summer is expected across most of the province, especially across southern and central parts of the province (including Calgary and Edmonton) where we are concerned about worsening drought conditions during July and August with a risk for major impacts to agriculture. We are also concerned about the heightened risk for wildfires and the associated periods of poor air quality for areas that are downwind of the fires.
To the north of the region that sees a hot and dry summer, we expect an active storm track with frequent showers and thunderstorms. However, there is still uncertainty as to exactly where that will set up and it is possible that we will see the active storm track set up further to the south from our current forecast.